The Center for Political Innovation has no ability to change the results of the upcoming US Presidential election, nor do we aspire to do so. As an educational project aimed at promoting anti-imperialism, we do not campaign for anyone or participate in the electoral process. Even if we did seek to operate in this way, our resources are by no means vast enough and our membership is not large enough to sway the vote significantly.

However, the results of the election will render our work as a small group of revolutionaries here in the center of decaying imperialism very important. I predict three possible outcomes for the election, and in each of these situations, our role will be vital.

Scenario #1 – Kamala Harris “Wins”

One possible outcome for the elections would be a victory for Kamala Harris. This would most likely be followed by a series of protests and unrest from Trump supporters, who will see the results, in light of the unpopularity of the Biden administration, social media manipulation, etc., as fraudulent.

It is likely that under such circumstances, a number of provocations much like the January 6th, 2021 Capitol Riot would take place. Labeling Trump supporters as violent extremists has already begun, and opposition to Trump from agencies like the FBI, CIA, and Secret Service is already obvious.

US media is already playing up the idea of “Russian meddling” in the election, and it is likely that the political repression of Trump supporters, under such circumstances, would expand to include all kinds of dissidents. The prosecution of the Uhuru 3, with the trial set to start in September, is a sign of how the ruling class is considering outlawing anti-imperialist speech outright.

Under such circumstances, it will be necessary for our organization to amp up its solidarity work. No anti-imperialist group in America has taken the prosecution of Penny Hess, Jesse Nevel, and Omali Yeshitela anywhere near as seriously as we do. If heavy-handed repression follows a Kamala Harris victory, we must be prepared to build solidarity and legal defense networks. We must be prepared to build bridges to Trump supporters and unify different political forces against state repression.

Scenario #2 – Trump Victory Followed by Controlled Anti-Woke Blowback

The most likely scenario for the election is that Trump will win, and the forces aligned with him with pro-imperialist politics, opposing China and Iran, supporting Israel, and supporting police state repression will intensify their messaging, hoping to ride Trump’s populist wave. A controlled “anti-woke” blowback is very likely.

Under these circumstances, CPI’s message of anti-imperialism and “our real enemy is at home” will be vital. We must avoid the trap of retreating back into leftism under such circumstances, and we must find a way to continue to engage with Trump supporters and push back against the attempts to use Trumpism for pro-imperialist purposes.

It is important to note that the Trump-aligned voices continue to label their detractors as “communists,” and there’s been talk from Marco Rubio and prominent voices in the Trump camp of prosecuting “communists” if they win the election. With this being the situation, it should be noted that some odd activities are taking place in Communist circles.

A group of reactionary, pro-imperialist Trotskyites called the International Marxist Tendency has suddenly rebranded as the “Revolutionary Communists of America” and is staging red flag marches. These longtime sectarians are now being highlighted by social media and mainstream media as they seek to own the “communist” label as loudly as possible. Of course, these Trotskyites denounce all socialist states and have pro-imperialist politics, but their desire to claim the Soviet hammer and sickle and Red Flag, and be the kind of villain that Trump supporters are being taught to fear, is certainly disturbing. Other similar operations of creating what amount to “red flag provocations” utilizing Cold War communist aesthetics without political substance, all as Trump supporters are being psyched up to hate Communists, have been noted as well.

The decision of CPI to start using the label of “innovationist” and intentionally avoid struggling to own the “Communist” brand while remaining open and proud of our Marxist-Leninist roots seems particularly correct in this moment. Trump supporters think “Communists” are woke and are being told “woke-ism” is a conspiracy from China. They are being psyched up to support imprisoning and prosecuting “communists.”

Whether or not the Revolutionary Communists of America is some kind of honeypot operation remains to be seen, but under the circumstance of Trump getting re-elected with the pro-Israel and anti-China forces aligned with him escalating their rhetoric, these activities seem particularly dangerous and could be very useful to the enemy. This sudden change in optics, with “communists” very visible as a political boogeyman, without any real explanation of their beliefs, isn’t simply a grassroots shift. Forces at the top are making certain things go viral and ensuring they lack any substance or coherent argument in the process. “Communism” is being boosted for a reason, and it is likely not a good one.

Scenario #3 – Trump Wins, in Opposition to the Bulk of His Class and the State

The best possible outcome of the election would be Donald Trump winning the election, but doing so in the face of very solid opposition from the state and his own class. This would force Trump into the position of becoming a genuine bonapartist figure, and he would have no choice but to enact very popular policies to stay in power. Under such circumstances, one could imagine Trump enacting important economic reforms and improving the geopolitical situation dramatically. Maduro has made clear he sees Trump as facing opposition from the same forces that killed Kennedy and that seek to destabilize Venezuela. DPRK has made clear that if Trump is re-elected, they will resume negotiations.

The Biden administration has prosecuted Su Mae Terry, a prominent scholar and figure from the Obama and Bush White Houses, alleging she is an “unregistered foreign agent” of South Korea. This indicates that the Biden administration is unable to get the cooperation from South Korea against DPRK and Russia it is hoping for and is retaliating against one of its most prominent and well-paid allies in Washington. The recent crash on the South Korean stock market must also be interpreted in this context.

If Trump comes back into office, facing all-out opposition from the deep state and his own class, the role of anti-imperialist organizers who build real networks and can carry out real operations will be vital. He and his allies will come to rely more and more on such forces to protect him from his rivals. The fact that Trump spoke at the Libertarian Party convention and made an agreement to appoint a Libertarian to his cabinet already indicates that he is desperate for allies in the fight ahead.

Under such circumstances, CPI’s educational work about anti-imperialism could become extremely important, and our influence among those who voted for Trump because they want to stop wars and the emerging low-wage police state could greatly expand.

Final Thoughts

All three potential outcomes of the vote render our organization extremely important. No one has supported Uhuru as we have. No one has been able to communicate anti-imperialist politics as effectively as we have. No one has developed a network capable of pulling off operations as we have.

Social media is just a toxic distraction full of performance artists and flim-flam men. A big part of the “innovationist turn” is a focus on recruitment in real life and pivoting away from the online spaces.

We are forced to recall the words of Lenin from 1903: “We are marching in a compact group along a precipitous and difficult path, firmly holding each other by the hand. We are surrounded on all sides by enemies, and we have to advance almost constantly under their fire. We have combined, by a freely adopted decision, for the purpose of fighting the enemy, and not of retreating into the neighboring marsh, the inhabitants of which, from the very outset, have reproached us with having separated ourselves into an exclusive group and with having chosen the path of struggle instead of the path of conciliation. And now some among us begin to cry out: Let us go into the marsh! And when we begin to shame them, they retort: What backward people you are! Are you not ashamed to deny us the liberty to invite you to take a better road! Oh, yes, gentlemen! You are free not only to invite us, but to go yourselves wherever you will, even into the marsh. In fact, we think that the marsh is your proper place, and we are prepared to render you every assistance to get there. Only let go of our hands, don’t clutch at us and don’t besmirch the grand word freedom, for we too are ‘free’ to go where we please, free to fight not only against the marsh, but also against those who are turning towards the marsh!”

The number of attacks and provocations our organization has faced, attempting to pull us away from our tasks and into one “marsh” or another, is not small. We must focus on carrying out our function, doing the work that we do to educate about anti-imperialism and get the message to as many people as possible. Everything else is a distraction.